Easy Harness Handicapping

 

 

 

THE DRIVER FACTOR

        Drivers, much as other athletes, possess varying amounts of ability.  Anyone in the sport knows that Luc Ouellette is among harness racing’s greatest drivers, and many people bet the horses he drives just for that reason.

        The top drivers are easy to spot.  Besides being listed among the leaders in the standings in the program, these are the reinsmen who are in the winner’s circle the most often.  They know how to best plan out a race, and know how and when to get their horse to give his all.  Saratoga Gaming & Raceway keeps track of how a driver is doing for you.  Right next to his name, we list his statistics at this track.  For example, near a horse Dan Cappello JR drives, you might see something like this:

       

        Daniel Cappello JR  (145) 

          blu-wht  (546-104-105-88-.351)

 

        This says Cappello weighs 145 pounds and wears the colors blue and white.  At this meet he has driven in 546 races, winning 104 of them, finishing second 105 times and finishing third 88 times.  His “Universal Driver Rating”, a number calculated like a batting average, is .351.  Any number over .300 is considered excellent.  Check the drivers in the race you’re handicapping; find the horses being driven by drivers whose average is .300 and make a note of them.

 

 

 

THE CLASS FACTOR

        Class, as the term is applied to horses, comes from one thing and one thing only: horses who can go faster and earn more money are said to be “classy”.  Better horses race for more money.   That’s why some races have higher purses.  Thus, the purse will be your key to class.  The purse for each race is shown on each past performance line.

        If tonight’s purse is less than what a horse raced for last time, he’s “dropping” in class; conversely, if the purse tonight is greater than what he raced for last time, he’s “moving up” in class.  Horses dropping in class have an advantage, so find those horses in the program and add them to your list of ones to watch.

 

 

 

THE FORM FACTOR

        Sharpness or current form is a term used to describe how well a horse has been performing.  Watch the past performance records for trends.  A horse that once was a star on the local circuit may show a series of poor outings. He may be worn out.  On the other hand, a horse on the rise may be able to handle competition that was once far out of his reach.

        Sharpness can also be spotted on the track.  Signs that a horse is indeed one to keep and eye on include his ability to over-come racing on the outside (a “parked out” trip), the skill to survive a tough battle on the lead, and making up much of the ground in the stretch.

        The parked-out symbol (o), which appears in the program when a horse raced “outside” (with other horses between him and the rail), might tell us even more.  Such parked-out symbols, especially where they may appear in winning or close efforts, are mighty signs of fitness.  Horses who were parked-out in their last race, if they won or were within a length of the winner at the finish, may put forth a better showing next time.

 

 

 

THE CONSISTENCY FACTOR

        Consistency is perhaps the most outstanding characteristic of the harness horse.  Good horses are able to perform well week after week.  Here in our program we keep track of that, too.

        In the upper right-hand portion of each horse’s spot in the program are each horses past performances.  We list the track where he won his fastest mile of the year (and its size – 5/8 of a mile, 1/2 – mile, etc.), the time of the fastest winning mile of the year, number of starts, wins, seconds, thirds, and money won for this year and last.  When Pop Queen raced in the 2005 Night of Champions to set the Saratoga Gaming and Raceway three year old filly record, hers looked like this:

    Sycs 1      1:543 2005 11   4   3      0    $109,667

    Sycs 1    2:004 2004 7     2   3   1    $52,386

                3,1:54.3          1        Lifetime               $162,053 

 

        The top line says that at Syracuse, a one-mile track, Pop Queen won in 1:54.3 in 2005.  In that year she had 11 starts, four victories, three seconds, and zero thirds, for an earning of $109,667.  In 2004 she took a 2:00.4 mark, again at Syracuse.  During that year she won $52,386.  The last line shows that as a three year old her best race is 1:54.3 and won a lifetime amount of $162,053.

        If a horse has been 1st-2nd-3rd at least half of the time this year, that is the mark of consistently strong horse.  Also take note is he’s won at least one-third of his races this year.  Also take note that picking a horse that breaks stride often could be risky.  Breaks are noted in the program with an “X” in the section marking the horses position during the race.

 

 

 

THE POST POSITION FACTOR

        While it’s true that “It’s not where you start, but where you finish” applies to harness racing, post position is of great importance.  Horses starting from the inside simply have less distance to travel.  The key to post positions is identifying the horses who will benefit from being inside.  Pay attention to horses in posts one through five, and pay special attention to those horses in posts one through five (inside positions) who had been in higher post positions (six, seven, etc.)  in their last start – they’re going to have an easier time of it.

 

 

 

THE TIME FACTOR

        Since almost all harness races are conducted at a distance of one mile, Standardbreds can be compared by time.  However, it is important to remember that there are many other factors involved, such as post position, the particular track and its condition, and whether the horse stayed on stride for the entire trip.

        Just because a horse won in 1:58 last week, he may have raced against classier (and thus faster) horses.  In general, though, a horse who recently won a mile race in 1:58 should post a similar time tonight.  It may help your handicapping to identify the three horses that posted the fastest final times in their most recent races.

 

 

 

SUMMING UP

        By identifying these 6 factors you may be able to increase your skills or chances of picking a winner.  Of course is there is always closing your eyes or choosing your favorite colors.  Hopefully this guide has helped to make you a little more knowledgeable about harness handicapping.  Or at the very least, for those experienced in handicapping, it has kept you occupied in between races.